Sunday, January 17, 2010

Expect Bad Winter Weather for Entire 1QTR 2010: Forecast Has Not Changed

Jan 17, 2010

| about stocks: CHK, DVN, EOG, APC, APA, OXY, MRO, XOM, XTO, CVX

For Public Interest, with Compliments of Mr. Miller, for the natural gas and oil investing community, the 1QTR 2010 bad weather forecast has not changed.
Hence we have another major winter storm forming on the West Coast, which for those investors who are not aware, natural gas is the marginal fuel in California and the western region of the U.S., which means not only does natural gas set the effective price of electricity, it also means more demand for natural gas.
While no material weather forecast revisions are expected, it is of interest to note that the monthly outlook for February will be issued on Thursday, January 21st, which also coincides with the weekly EIA natural gas withdrawals from storage, which is expected to be an extremely large number for a third week in a row.
Expect natural gas prices and volatility to rise.
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ONE MONTH JANUARY FORECAST-ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURE ARE PREDICTED FOR THE GULF COAST STATES, ARKANSAS, MISSOURI, TENNESSEE, THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM DELAWARE SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA. BELOW-AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE BERING SEACOAST OF ALASKA. ELSEWHERE, WHICH INCLUDES A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE COUNTRY, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF ABOVE-, NEAR-, AND BELOW-AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED.

THREE MONTH FIRST QUARTER FORECAST-THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR JANUARY, FEBRUARY AND MARCH 2010 INDICATE THAT THE CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE ARE ELEVATED OVER THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL LIKELIHOOD FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE U.S. FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

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