We have already driven home the fact that shale gas production decline curves are very steep.
But the real answer is that the "flipping dirt/leasehold game" is over. Additionally, we have made clear that their will be major "environmental and royalty taxes" levied on shale gas due to water contamination and depleted State Budget coffers.
Then there is the very real risk of continued moratoriums on drilling, which in some states could become permanent.
When you do the math, shale gas production companies are massively overvalued. All shell games end in tears.
The attached post asks the correct questions. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-rubin/if-shale-gas-is-a-game-ch_b_807329.html